Bitcoin's Crash - How Low Can It Go?

Right, break's over, and no more recess. I've committed so much to Steem, that I always feel bad when I don't post on time, and I usually have something to say. However, despite all the events that have conspired in the past few days, I've been left speechless.

The only reason for my absence, is that I've been busy monitoring my portfolio, and getting some trades done amidst the intense volatility. Can't say I'm pleased with the end result, but life still moves on, so that's a start. It's been a wild ride, and I certainly don't think this is the last of it.

https://media.giphy.com/media/xUOxfe6dGnq0Z6EBJ6/giphy.gif

Credits to: GIPHY


The Nightmare Scenario.

The chaos ensues, with Bitcoin prices having dipped to an unprecedented $3,800, which we didn't think would be possible recently, but it did indeed happen. Then again, no one expects Covid-19 to start causing problems, least of all Bitcoin's biggest crash in 7 years.

The last time we saw Bitcoin nearing these lows in recent times, was in late-2019, when Bitcoin bounced off $6,200, before Corona beer was associated with a pandemic. Since then, we never thought Bitcoin would drop below $7,000 again, ever.

https://files.steempeak.com/file/steempeak/zacknorman97/oidoN8tI-Screenshot_2020-03-1320Cryptocurrency20Prices20Heatmap20Market20Cap20Charts20Widget20E2809320COIN360.png

Credits to: Coin360 (Markets Overview)

The rest of the crypto markets aren't doing too well either, with Ethereum having touched below $100 for the first time in years. The only question then - is where do we go from here? Bitcoin has since bounced to $5,000, which is an incredible +40% recovery, but will it be enough?

Well, despite a steady gain since then, it's still hard to say, given all the volatility, and there's a strong likelihood that Bitcoin will go either way next. If you're thinking of trading in these crazy times, then I'd be cautious. Remember the number one rule for investing - only put in what you're willing to lose.

https://files.steempeak.com/file/steempeak/zacknorman97/Qk6YAmGj-Screenshot_2020-03-1320Global20Charts20CoinMarketCap.png

Credits to: CoinMarketCap (Market Cap)

If you're not keen on losing, then it's better to stay out of it. There's definitely some worrying signs highlighting Bitcoin's next move. Not only has it broken sharply below its technical wedge, but also below the 5-year parabolic curve. That latter part is what worries me the most.

This long, 5-year curve marks Bitcoin's support line. While Bitcoin has broken this in the past, it has always corrected above with immediacy. Now, it's nosedived past this point, and there doesn't seem to be a quick upwards correction in sight, for the time being at least.

https://files.steempeak.com/file/steempeak/zacknorman97/j1dg7BSW-Screenshot_2020-03-1320Crypto20Fear20Greed20Index20-20Bitcoin20Sentiment20-20Alternative20me.png

Credits to: Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index has also gone to its low point in history, hitting rock bottom. I had never thought it could go this low, but it just did. However, despite all those negative signals, I'm not selling. So far as I'm concerned, most other investors are seeing the glass half empty, and I'm parched.


Fortune Favours The Hodl.

I've decided to make either a bold, or idiotic move - having just bought myself slowly into Bitcoin just hours ago, at around the $4,900-$5,000 mark. By no means am I using any clever bots to make scheduled buy-ins, just instinct. $3,800 would've made an even better starting point, but alas, I was asleep then, and it rebounded just before I woke up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMYdlQztm8A

While I'm no financial advisor, and my gut instincts aren't always the best, I do feel good about making this move. Personally, I also think it's a bad time for you to sell your crypto, as bad as it may be. If you're HODL'ing, then there's no reason to why you should start panic selling.

Unless you have some devilishly sneaky plans to start riding the rollercoaster, or if you just have a quick trigger finger, actively trading these markets at this time, doesn't seem wise to me. If Covid-19 ends up becoming an enduring pandemic that'll wipe out huge portions of human civilisation, then we can panic, but not now.

https://files.steempeak.com/file/steempeak/zacknorman97/vIkIl9xp-Screenshot_2020-03-1320LookIntoBitcoin20Bitcoin20Logarithmic20Growth20Curves.png

https://files.steempeak.com/file/steempeak/zacknorman97/3lKWH1xo-Screenshot_2020-03-1320LookIntoBitcoin20Stock-to-Flow20Model.png

Credits to: lookintobitcoin - Growth Curve and lookintobitcoin - S2F

With Halving less than 60 days away, we're about to see Bitcoin's supply restricted, and with more global demand and attention than ever. Even if we can't break new all time highs, there's no reason why we shouldn’t see Bitcoin trend higher in the latter-half of 2020, albeit some corrections here and there will be normal, as it has been historically proven.

So until then, HODL on to your portfolio, and keep holding strong. Always know that with Bitcoin, it's important to zoom out, and look at the big picture. See that Bitcoin has had these moments in the past, although not as catastrophic. Since volatility has always been expected near Halving season, could this coincidentally be the pre-Halving correction, and would Bitcoin just keep going up from this point?

https://files.steempeak.com/file/steempeak/zacknorman97/NNh5u1DO-X37EMQ9WSwsLaUVnWj5v4rfuehQsoVtukrb5zwdXbo5aA1Ad39Ag3xeAuevNT2KNT4vDdgRBCpJit1WRvhDsXnVrWejAdRbFGgYk6.png

https://files.steempeak.com/file/steempeak/zacknorman97/TYc4W4pc-X37EMQ9WSwsLaUVnWj5v4rfuehQsoVtukrb5zwdXbo5aA1Ad39Ag3xeAuevNT2KNT4vDdgRBCpJiuRSYqv2BaEGndxhDJFFxuStn2.png

Credits to: zacknorman97 (How high can we go - Can Bitcoin get to $100,000?)

Who knows? As my current portfolio has gone to shit, I may as well start entering new positions as Bitcoin enters into what I consider to be discount pricing. So for now, I'm HODL'ing - no stop loss, no take profit… Just buy and hold until prices regain its true place. I'll even continue making these small buy-ins, especially if its drops any further.

If you wanted to invest into Bitcoin, and you've been putting it off because the price is too much of a premium, then this may very well be the best time to start going in, cautiously so.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTd0p8A570E&t=611s

At the end of the day however, though we're stressed out that our investments and holdings are going down the toilet, know that money's not everything. Covid-19 stops for nothing, so make sure that you keep yourself, and your loved ones safe. Stay indoors, keep away from large events, work from home if needed, and pay attention to your hygiene.

Keep HODL'ing on folks, and stay safe! More from me coming soon, I promise...


Thanks for reading! For more updates on my blogs, or the more minute things in life, feel free to follow me on Twitter and LinkedIn, and maybe give a shout there as well!

While you're at it, follow along @zacknorman97 for more, coming soon :-)


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